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Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|