Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
