A Number of in Labour Want Keir Starmer Gone. He Informs Me He Will Endure – and the Economic Outlook Is Set to Strengthen.
"I'll be positioned in the same seat by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer remarked, adding that if the conversation was successful, he might welcome us into his official residence for a follow-up conversation next year.
For a PM, there's rarely ever break for leaders. Shortly before we sat down, the PM had been speaking with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and working to understand precisely had transpired in Venezuela, where his big ally, US President Donald Trump, had recently launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.
Once our interview, which was considerably lengthier than usual, had concluded, Maduro had been indicted in New York.
Renewed Energy for the New Year
As the year commences, Sir Keir appears to have had a kind of a reboot. Perhaps even just some a rest with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's rural getaway.
That certainly seemed to have resulted in a more positive mood than at the difficult tail end of 2025, a dreadful year politically for him.
But are he and his supporters kidding themselves if they believe his fortunes are about to improve?
Party Concerns
The grisly reality for the PM is that numerous of his party members think he's underperforming at his job. Several of them would rather gamble and remove him in 2026.
However Sir Keir was rejecting the idea during our conversation on Saturday morning.
Repeatedly he told me he'd be "evaluated at the next election", maintaining nobody would remove his term from him – even if the best chance of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 might be for Labour to switch its leader.
"We are in the fight of our generation and I plan to be at the forefront," he declared.
Upcoming Local Votes
The problem for the prime minister is that he will be judged far sooner than then – in a mega set of elections in May throughout the UK. He sought to contend, perhaps excessively, that they are about who runs councils, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.
Accurate – in part. But although he may not want to concede it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.
This did not stop Sir Keir implying that there were no scenario under which he would step down, even if one of his colleagues contested his leadership for the job, if those elections be very poor for Labour.
Predicting a Turnaround
He attempted to rationalise his low poll ratings by saying the public was understandably eager for things to get better. He aimed to assure the interviewer, and the nation, that the coming months would be different.
The economy would improve notwithstanding rising unemployment, he claimed, when strategies the administration implemented during their initial rocky year began to take effect.
- He committed to shut asylum hotels before the current deadline of 2029, but he wouldn't set a new date on that.
- He added too, with the proviso that it wasn't a done deal, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt a greater possibility now than at any time since Russia's full-scale invasion.
- He stated for the first occasion that Western partners were now considering how to combine US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to protect a potential peace.
His core argument is that soon the country will "turn the corner".
A Consistent Script
The PM may have communicated with greater vigour than I've seen from him for a some time – more relaxed, perhaps, with a longer slot to talk.
However, in spite of facing pressure from many directions for a more decisive approach, with much more political vision, more dynamism, more pace and more urgency, his explanations were familiar ones.
Given that he is in such significant political peril, is a different approach required a new narrative?
No administration, and certainly not one that has been struggling in the polls for an extended period, has everything its own way.
Sir Keir's problems are not only because government is hard, but because he and his colleagues have erred, even in the last few weeks.
Regrets and Risks
The PM admitted that he regretted saying he was "delighted" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an outcry when statements he'd made in the past – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – surfaced.
Starmer attributed it to "procedures" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.
And he is inviting obvious political risks as the year progresses. His alliance with the US president takes on a new risk after Trump's military action on Venezuela.
Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over his career, the notion he would be at ease with such action seems far-fetched.
Policy Stances and Pressures
He asserted he was a "longtime advocate of international law" but we "simply do not have the entire story at the moment".
Some wanted him to denounce it prior to the interview. And the administration is likely to face more pressure to give an clear view in Parliament in the next few days.
And there has always been growing pressure in the Labour ranks to revisit some of the results of Brexit.
The PM denies he's heading in that direction, but his new more concrete pledge to move closer with the single market – the huge economic European market – will likely provoke protests that he is reneging on his pledge never to try to undo the decisions that flowed from Brexit.
A decision to integrate into more of the single market will satisfy many on his own side, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to